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功率预测与一次调频列入“并网准入硬条件”？

来源：深圳市中电电力技术股份有限公司   2026年05月09日 16:29  

随着新能源快速发展，光伏发电在电力系统中的渗透率持续提升。精准的功率预测作为电网平衡调度的重要依据，,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"class":"4ever-article","data-clipboard-cangjie":"[\"root\",{ ,[\"p\",{\"rPr\":{\"fonts\":{\"ascii\":\"微软雅黑\",\"eastAsia\":\"微软雅黑\",\"hAnsi\":\"微软雅黑\" ,[\"span\",{\"data-type\":\"text\" ,[\"span\",{\"fonts\":{\"ascii\":\"微软雅黑\",\"eastAsia\":\"微软雅黑\",\"hAnsi\":\"微软雅黑\",\"hint\":\"eastAsia\" ,\"data-type\":\"leaf\" ,\"功率预测是电网平衡调度的重要依据，精准的功率预测技术也为光伏参与电力市场化交易及调控提供关键支撑，助力提升电网灵活性与运行效率，目前已有多省将其纳入考核要求。\"]]]]","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []","style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-top: 5px; line-height: 1.75; margin-bottom: 10px; display: block; text-align: justify;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"node",{"tagName":"span","attributes":{"style":null ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-shadow: none; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 14px; visibility: visible;">为光伏参与电力市场化交易及调控提供关键支撑，目前已有多省将其纳入强制考核；但光伏出力易受天气波动影响，若缺乏专业预测系统或过度依赖通用气象数据，易导致误差显著偏大，难以满足达标要求。


,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin-bottom: 8px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">而随着新能源装机比例持续攀升，电力系统转动惯量相对下降，电网频率安全问题日趋突出，,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-top: 5px;line-height: 1.75;margin-bottom: 8px;display: block;text-align: justify;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-shadow: none; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 14px; visibility: visible;">越来越多政策要求新能源必须具备一次调频能力并列为并网准入检查条,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-top: 5px;line-height: 1.75;margin-bottom: 8px;display: block;text-align: justify;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; line-height: 1.75; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-shadow: none; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 14px; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">件。但若,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-top: 5px;line-height: 1.75;margin-bottom: 8px;display: block;text-align: justify;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-shadow: none; letter-spacing: 1px; font-size: 14px; visibility: visible;">装置与AGC/AVC系统联动逻辑设计不当，易引发频率响应“过冲”或“迟动”，直接导致验收失败。

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,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"line-height: 1.75;margin-bottom: 8px;display: block;text-align: justify;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"node",{"tagName":"span","attributes":{"style":"color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-shadow: none;letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible;">功率预测与,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"line-height: 1.75;margin-bottom: 8px;display: block;text-align: justify;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"node",{"tagName":"span","attributes":{"style":"color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-shadow: none;letter-spacing: 1px;font-size: 14px;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible;">一次调频，已从过去的“建议具备”升级为“并网准入硬条件”。10kV及以上光伏电站推进四可改造，需同步具备上述两项能力，方可通过并网验收。

但光伏电站在推进四可改造过程中，也存在着,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"line-height: 1.75;margin-bottom: 15px;display: block;text-align: justify;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; text-shadow: none; visibility: visible; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">功率预测精度难以持续满足电网考核要求、一次调频与AGC联动配合设计难度高、现场通信链路冗余导致快速响应难以保障等多类难题。

针对10kV及以上光伏电站四可改造项目，CET中电技术提供覆盖“控制层—通信层—感知层”的完整系统方案，在满足四可基础要求的同时，将一次调频与功率预测能力深度融入整体架构，确保并网验收一次通过。


核心产品一
 CET高精度光功率预测解决方案 

CET高精度光功率预测解决方案基于高精度数值天气预报（NWP）与实测数据融合建模，提供短期（24-72h）与超短期（15min-4h）双尺度精准预测，分别服务于电网调度计划与AGC协调控制。系统全面支持国产化部署与等保加固，数据接口严格符合国家/南方电网规约标准，确保并网合规与数据安全。

图片
核心产品二
 分布式光伏场站四可装置 

CET-7320-G分布式光伏场站四可装置作为控制核心，集成厂站级AGC/AVC控制系统，可实现对光伏逆变器有功/无功出力的统一调控，并上传四遥数据至调度主站，满足电网对光伏场站“可观、可测、可控、可调”的全面要求。

产品通过与一次调频系统的协调配合机制解决一次调频与AGC联动配合设计难度高的挑战：

● 正常工况下，,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-tools":"135编辑器","data-id":"165966" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"margin: 10px auto;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"background-color: #f5fcf7;padding: 10px;box-sizing:border-box;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-autoskip":"1","style":"text-align: justify;line-height:1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size:14px;color:#333333;background-color: transparent;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-bottom: 8px;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CET-7320-G负责接收并执行调度端二次调频指令（AGC模式），实现光伏出力的常规调节；

● 当系统频率越过死区触发一次调频响应时，快频控制器向,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-tools":"135编辑器","data-id":"165966" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"margin: 10px auto;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"background-color: #f5fcf7;padding: 10px;box-sizing:border-box;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-autoskip":"1","style":"text-align: justify;line-height:1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size:14px;color:#333333;background-color: transparent;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-bottom: 8px;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CET-7320-G发出闭锁信号，暂停二次调频控制,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-tools":"135编辑器","data-id":"165966" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"margin: 10px auto;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"background-color: #f5fcf7;padding: 10px;box-sizing:border-box;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-autoskip":"1","style":"text-align: justify;line-height:1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size:14px;color:#333333;background-color: transparent;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-bottom: 8px;margin-top: 8px;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); font-size: 17px; font-family: mp-quote, "PingFang SC", system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; letter-spacing: 0.034em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">（AGC模式），由一次调频装置独立快速响应，防止两套系统指令叠加造成过冲；

● 频率恢复正常后，闭锁信号自动解除，,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 8px;","data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-tools":"135编辑器","data-id":"165966" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"margin: 10px auto;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"background-color: #f5fcf7;padding: 10px;box-sizing:border-box;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-autoskip":"1","style":"text-align: justify;line-height:1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;font-size:14px;color:#333333;background-color: transparent;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-pm-slice":"0 0 []" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ,"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-bottom: 8px;margin-top: 8px;" ,"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" ]" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">CET-7320-G重新接管出力调控，实现两套系统的无缝切换与分工协作。

图片
核心产品三
CET远动装置与智能网关 

PMC-1618虚拟电厂多功能终端负责厂站与调度主站之间的四遥数据规约转换与安全传输；iSmartGate 8智能网关承担站内各子系统与外部网络之间的数据汇聚与协议适配，共同构成电站数据上行通道的安全基础。

产品支持IEC 101/104、DNP3等主流规约，基于国产化硬件平台，满足网络安全等级保护相关要求，具备冗余通道配置能力，保障数据传输的连续性与安全性。

图片图片



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